News just in.
Aydin Coban is due to appear on trial in April, 2016.
It is expected to take nine days to sort it all out. It looks like seven people have pressed charges, but I don’t know if they count the Amanda Todd allegation. The Press suggest that the Canadians might extradite him after that.
This case will be interesting, to say the least.
My own opinion – as most people know by now – is that he was nowhere near the Amanda Todd story. However, I suspect that he was an online miscreant.
Really, it all hinges on whether or not he was Tyler Boo. Let’s go through it chronologically.
We know that Amanda went online at a very young age, with her singing at the age of 9 or 10, and we know that she was pretty active from then on. What confuses things is that she stated that she was in Grade 7 when it all the horrible stuff began so people think she flashed aged about 12. However, none of that fits in when examined closely. From evidence, it’s almost 100% certain that she began around the age of 13 or 14.
We will never know who captured the first instance. We don’t even know when the first instance occurred. What we do know is that the central incident took place in December 2010.
From Amanda’s own admittance that it was all ‘no big deal’ (as quoted in the 5th Estate documentary) so we know that all aspects of coercion or trickery were absent up to December 2010. We know that her behaviour was voluntary up to that point.
Therefore, it would be relatively safe to assume that Aydin Coban wasn’t on the scene then. The people who were around – Viper, Zapthosepests, r0ra and so on – were all well-known. All the names and aliases are all easily available, via the Daily Capper and other sources. We also know from the Daily Capper that Amanda was a ‘celebrity of sorts’. If there had been any hint of Aydin Coban being around at that time, it would have been very likely to have cropped up in the narrative. Even those Anonymous idiots never put him in the picture.
The Todd supporters like to think that the most famous Amanda flash from BlogTV was a product of some dreadful chicanery. It wasn’t. That can be dismissed.
But what exactly happened after December 2010? That’s when it all becomes a bit vague. The three extant videos of Amanda can’t be verified date-wise. We can be almost certain that the first two were pre-December 2010, but the other one is more difficult to place.
We have rumours that Amanda persisted after December 2010. On January 4th, 2011, Amanda wrote to the Daily Capper stating she was being blackmailed, that the police knew. However, we can ascertain for certain from the Ustream video of Amanda and Shylah that the shock of the cops arriving didn’t stop Amanda from appearing online. That is why it’s all such a mystery, because if we try to understand, nobody can quite grasp why a girl who has been outed so drastically doesn’t keep away from the Internet for a while, rather than appearing with her ‘Amanda Todd Show’ three weeks later. Nor do we understand why, at that time, she insisted it wasn’t a big deal.
We also have rumours about her isabella100555 identity. But what we do know for certain (from the communications with the RCMP) is that in 2011 she has produced ‘new material’ that is endangering enough for the cops to warn Carol and Norm to protect Amanda because ‘there is only so much we can do’.
We can dismiss Austin Collins. Unless we imbue Aydin Coban with some sort of huge obsession, it is not possible to imagine that he would bother to create a local ‘shitstorm’ as Austin put it. Yet again, it doesn’t fit in – the whole thing is just more indicative of a local person with a desire to create trouble. It doesn’t fit a blackmailer profile, because a blackmailer has to have some sort of threat. Creating a profile, friending a load of people and then changing the profile picture is just an act of devilment.
Then we get to Tyler Boo. At first glance, it’s easy to dismiss any connection with Aydin Coban. His statement, when asked by Amanda where he lives, of ‘USA! USA!’ is too spontaneous. When further challenged by Amanda, he states he lives a 4-5 hour plane journey way – placing him in North America, not Holland.
All the Todd supporters will simply say that Aydin is a criminal genius, that he will have written all that because he is clever. My view is that things are always simpler than that. Most of these online people are morons.
So we have to think. Was Aydin linked to Amanda from 2009 onwards? From 2010 onwards? or just from 2011? If we assume that he’s from 2011, we know that he certainly wasn’t to blame for all of Amanda’s appearances. All we can attribute to him (very vaguely) is the Tyler Boo threat.
But what about all those other identities attributed to him? Highly unlikely. Just ask yourself. One of the identities is Alice Mcalister. Would a blackmailer write to Carol Todd warning her about Amanda’s activities? Why try to warn someone off if the intention is to blackmail? Why does Carol Todd wish she had engaged Alice Mcalister further, rather than just forwarding it to the cops?
Another thing you have to ask. If the RCMP had been investigating the case for so long – from December 2010 and more so from 2012 – why didn’t the Facebook details appear sooner? Why did it take an investigation in Holland to unearth them? Why did the RCMP not uncover all the details before?
So now move forward a few months. Aydin Coban’s activities didn’t show up until well after Amanda’s death.
The initial reports originally stated that Aydin went online pretending to be a young girl to extort men. That doesn’t fit in too well, but it’s believable. Why would he do that? If it was to extort cash, there would be a traceable financial history. However, maybe it’s unimportant.
Where did the link to Amanda Todd come from? There’s been no official announcement. The charges relate to several anonymous people, with a simple reference to one Canadian. Is this feasible?
There are a couple of things that make it difficult to believe.
Firstly, all the evidence against Aydin has been collected from a keylogger placed on his computer in 2013. So by Sherlock Holmes detection, there can be no link to Amanda. The Dutch prosecutors have complained that they can’t find any online history because Aydin refuses to part with passwords. Aydin has written a note to say that he had nothing to do with Amanda (it’s odd that the authorities allowed him to publish it).
Secondly, it’s incredibly odd that all that Facebook evidence was published. Any court process would want to keep that private so as not to influence any possible jury proceedings. Even if it is not a jury case, it’s still odd that people like the 5th Estate and Dutch media managed to get hold of them, but the RCMP failed.
So all in all it’s a peculiar set-up. How will it pan out? I’m guessing that Aydin will be prosecuted for various online misdemeanours. Going by past cases, the sentencing is unlikely to be harsh and he’s already served time in jail. He will probably argue that the ip address was shared so it can’t be definitely pinned on him, and the case will centre on whether or not he can be linked without question. A few years in prison for enticement. End of story.
But what if he’s extradited? The Canadians would like to have him linked to the entire Amanda Todd history from day one. That would wrap it all up, and Amanda’s journey to sainthood would be complete. It would mean that all the Todd people could rest easy without having to think that Amanda went online voluntarily, so all would be well with the world. However, that would mean a big trial, with all the history being brought up again. Nobody really wants that. The Canadians will be happier to see Aydin prosecuted in Holland, and they can then all say that Aydin Coban was the monster responsible for it all (even if Amanda isn’t mentioned in court) and that the sentence was too lenient and so on.
Who knows what will happen?