I have to admit to writing this post mainly for clickbait. Aydin Coban will be appearing in court soon and people will go online looking for information. I expect a spike in my viewer stats.
I’m torn. I would love to be able to write with confidence that he has nothing to do with Amanda Todd, but I’m not sure now. Does he fit in to the story? Is it just more media bullshit? Let’s have a go at working things out.
Aydin Coban was traced to De Rosep Bungalow Park in Holland. According to their website, it’s quite a nice holiday place – according to some reports, it’s a dump full of semi-destitute transient workers run by a mad woman with a ferocious dog. Like something out of a cheap horror film in which the inhabitants feed off the flesh of unsuspecting passers-by. You get my drift.
So what does that tell us about Aydin? Nobody in the bungalow park knew him, so we can guess he was a loner. Who knows? But he fits the profile of potential predator/groomer/internet lurker.
So we have the first step towards his guilt, even if it is terribly prejudiced.
However, we have a slight problem. The bungalow park is supposedly aimed at itinerant workers who don’t stay too long. Aydin Coban has said that he didn’t live in the place when police traced the ip address, but let’s forget about that for now, as we are trying to link him to Amanda.
If Aydin was living at De Rosep, it’s unlikely he had been there long due to the nature of the place (short and medium term rentals only). At a stretch, we could place Aydin at De Rosep in 2012 and 2013. We could stretch it further if Aydin worked at the bungalow park as some sort of caretaker, but there is no hint of that. If all the ip address connections were coming out of De Rosep, then this puts Aydin out of range for being the initial person who supposedly groomed/extorted Amanda in 2010, but keeps him in range for being Tyler Boo.
So let’s get rid of one certainty. Aydin Coban was nowhere near the Amanda Todd story in 2010/2011. We can take that as 100% correct.
We can strengthen that assertion. If Aydin’s involvement stems from a Norwegian episode, that was in 2012. Police were first interested in 2012. The keylogger (used by the Dutch police) gathered information from 2013 onwards. Plus, if we believe victim statements, Aydin was a blackmailer AFTER the event, e.g. he would track girls who were already exposing themselves online and then approach them. Add in the fact that the authorities let Aydin write his ‘I am innocent’ letter (very odd, don’t you think?), and add in the fact that we all now know that Amanda was displaying to crowds, and I will bet my life on the certainty of Aydin Coban not being on the scene in 2010/2011.
So let’s move on to other things. We know that Coban is pretty much a sad character. Yet the police (supposedly) have said that he used some of the most sophisticated computer techniques they had encountered. That really is off-putting. We have to make an assumption that Aydin is some sort of squalid loser AND some sort of computer genius. Unlikely, but not impossible, considering the cops think anyone who has a twitter account is a bit advanced.
What about his router and computer? Reports are a bit vague. Initially, it looked as if the router was supplied by the bungalow park to be used either by the tenant or all the tenants, but it’s more likely that it was his own personal router. However, it might be possible that he shared the router with neighbours. But anyway, as we are still trying to make Coban guilty of something, we’ll assume that the router was only used by him.
But…..there are the mystery MAC addresses: “Everyone knows it’s very easy to spoof a MAC address, which means you clone an address.” “a wireless network device seized by police had been recently used by at least seven different people.” “Of the seven MAC addresses that appear in the police documents, he says only one was actually found on a device in Mr. Coban’s cabin.” So maybe it isn’t Aydin after all.
But he must be guilty? Surely?
Well, what’s he been accused of? The very first accounts said that he went online as a YOUNG GIRL who befriended ADULT MEN and then threatened them with blackmail FOR MONEY after they got over-involved. The next reports suggested that he went online as a YOUNG BOY and befriended ADULT MEN in the same way with the same aim.
This is really odd, because in the next reports Aydin is only traced due to his involvement with a Norwegian girl. What are we to believe?
What do we have? A computer genius who lives in a dump and allows himself to be traced, and a villain who pretends to be a girl, a boy, a blackmailer of adults for cash, a groomer of young girls for sexual pleasure. The whole kit and caboodle.
How much of a wily scoundrel was Aydin? According to some information, he was so crazy like a fox that he sent Carol Todd a warning note in December 2010, telling Mrs Todd that Amanda was in danger. The devil! He was so cunning that it was him who groomed Amanda on a one-to-one online encounter in 2010 and released that one photo to everyone on December 23rd 2010. He was so ultra-cunning that he then became Austin Collins to produce a ‘shitfest’. But surely the cleverest act was as Tyler Boo, who Amanda had obviously never encountered before, and who was clever enough to not only tell Amanda he was from the USA, but that it was a five-hour flight away.
So where does that leave us?
I had almost become convinced that I was partly wrong. My first assumption was that Aydin was never part of the Todd legend. I veered from that first assumption after recent news suggested he was highly active in 2012, which would bring him in to range. However, I’m going to stick with the first assumption and say AYDIN COBAN HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH AMANDA TODD AT ALL.
I did think he could be Tyler Boo, but the very quick responses from Tyler Boo about being from the USA don’t fit in with the Coban style. The other huge clue that Tyler Boo is not Aydin Coban is that Aydin allegedly (according to my informers) had regular contact with his victims (hence his ability to groom) and thus formed a kind of online relationship. From Amanda’s reaction to Tyler Boo, it’s obvious she’s not encountered him before.
OK. By now any idiots reading this will go all whiney and say ‘But the RCMP have charged him, so they must know it’s him’. Let me explain. Coban’s alleged victims are international. It is reported (but we don’t know if it’s true) that Aydin was in touch with a girl in Canada. The RCMP simply took that as being Amanda Todd.
But…but…but didn’t Facebook produce a whole list of Aydin’s aliases used to contact Amanda? It’s a list of all the people who were linked with Amanda, you dumbasses. Take a good look at the list – right at the top is our old pal Kody Maxson (I’m surprised nobody mentioned that). And Alice McAlister who warned Mrs Todd in 2010. And all the others? The little meanies who left messages after the fight in the playground. It’s not 50 iterations of Aydin’s persona.
However, I am entirely prepared to believe that Aydin was a 4Chan-style opportunistic blackmailer. But even that’s slightly doubtful.
We’ll see. The trial will begin soon. My guess is that there will be a lot of defence saying that the router could have been hacked, that all evidence obtained via the keylogger is illegal, that all evidence prior to the keylogger is unverifiable. We don’t know who the victims are – are they male, female, young, old? At the end of the day, it might come down to whether Aydin is actually recognised by any of the victims which would then put the cat amongst the pigeons because how could he have pretended to be a child in the days of Skype and webcam? If he did try blackmail for money, there would be PayPal or bank traces, or how else did the money get to him? But that tie-in has not been mentioned.
The victims must have a definite link to Coban, that’s for sure. As far as I can see, the cops contacted everybody they could find who had a direct link to the ip address. But something tells me that establishing a link from victim to ip address to Coban is going to be difficult. If it was easy, Coban would have been encouraged to plead guilty and get it over and done with.
Will there be an extradition? My guess is never. My guess is that there will be three possible outcomes:
Aydin is a guilty as sin of being an online villain. He will serve time in Holland and Canada will come to the conclusion that he’s had his punishment. Conveniently, they will be able to to easily attach Amanda to his victim list and it will be end of story.
Aydin is not guilty, but only due to reasonable doubt. The Canadians will have a fit, but decide it’s not worth extraditing him.
Aydin is not guilty at all. Unlikely, but it will make it pointless to extradite him. If the Dutch can’t pin something on him, then the Canadians certainly won’t stand a chance.
The big risk of extraditing Coban is that the whole myth will be uncovered. Unless the Canadians can convincingly pin the entirety of the case on Coban (from 2010 onwards) all they will be able to do is to try to pin the Tyler Boo identity on him. That might be enough for some people, but it would still leave too many loose ends. But it would be enough for the Todd fanatics, I think. They want closure, and they could rest at last knowing that it was all the fault of one person.
We’ll know soon. The only shock will be if Aydin gets in the dock and pleads guilty immediately, and I can’t see that happening.